When scientists encounter a problem too big to test, they use models. Ayn Shlisky, a regional forest planner at the USDA Forest Service uses models dealing with vegetation growth and development. Models, she says, are especially useful for experiments where full-scale tests are unrealistic.

“You want to try and mimic how the real world works, so that you can either test an assumption of test a hypothesis that you wouldn’t be able to do in the real world,” said Shlisky. “You can do things with models that represent something that may happen over hundreds or thousands of years.”

A forest near Portland, Oregon. Digital tools help researchers predict wide scale changes to forests like this one

Since the beginning of humanity, people have been using creative ways to tell stories about the natural world. Hieroglyphs on cave walls, spoken-word narratives, hand-written epics, and emotive folk songs are just some ways that people have told stories in humanity’s short history. In the digital age, another form of storytelling is done with models.

Models can reach into the past and predict the future. Vegetation models use data collected from forests and catalog research to predict how certain landscapes—from murky waters to old growth forests—will look and function in the coming years. Before scientists can make those models though, they have to collect and analyze the data.

Geographic Information Systems: Viewing The World Through A Different Lens

Geographic Information Systems are, in the simplest sense, tools that collect and analyze geographical data, which can then be used to make models. It merges mapmaking, statistical analysis, and database technology into one, cohesive computer program that creates multi-layered visual representations of data. This form of data-visualization has the ability to take abstract statistics, correlations, and trends and give it all a face.

In 1855, an English physicist named John Snow plotted points on a map of London to visually represent cases of cholera that were popping up all around the city. Snow’s studies of the distribution of these outbreaks led to the discovery of a contaminated water pump that was infecting London residents with the fatal disease. Although his use of data plotting was antique by today’s standards, his analysis of statistical and geographical data from an aerial perspective has led many to credit John Snow with using the first form of GIS.

In a more modern sense, the origins of GIS can be traced to Canada. The Canadian Federal Department of Forestry and Rural Development developed a program called the Canada Geographic Information System, which was used to collect, analyze, and visualize “land capability” data for rural sections of Canada. By mapping and displaying information about Canadian soils, agriculture, recreation, wildlife, waterfowl, forestry, and land use visually, Canada created the world’s first true operational GIS system.

Kathy Stroud is the Map/GIS Librarian at the University of Oregon

Today, the uses of this system are nearly infinite. Kathy Stroud, the Maps/GIS Librarian at the University of Oregon in Eugene, Ore., explained the diversity of the program.

“Natural resource land management was the focus of the first GIS, but social scientists are starting to see the power of looking at it, or the health industry, which is something that’s been growing over the past ten years: where do the homeless live? Do lower income people have access to healthcare clinics?” she said.

However, the main uses of Geographic Information Systems usually center on environmental issues like endangered animals or plants.

“The modeling aspect is going to be huge with the climate change. It’s such a huge area of concern and it affects all of us,” Stroud explained. “Climate change can affect the timber industry and what plants are growing, how vulnerable you are to fire, and if it affects the rainfall patterns. It’s also been used in disaster management.”

GIS was mostly used by government agencies up until the 1990s when ESRI, a software development and services company, came out with desktop software that was much simpler to use. One piece of that software was called ArcView, an entry-level desktop version of GIS.

“In the GIS world, ArcView has made GIS more accessible to people who don’t know how to work on other platforms,” said Ayn Shlisky.

Despite GIS’ accessibility, it generally still has a distinct set of users.

“City planning departments [use it],” said Stroud. “The main number of users would probably be local and regional planners.”

Those planners also use another program, called the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool, to make predictions on various pieces of land.

The Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool allows users to create and test models of vegetation dynamics

The Vegetation Dynamics Tool: Building Models

Simon Bisrat is a modeling analyst working with Portland State University in conjunction with the Forest Service. The state and transition models he uses look at the current state of a particular vegetation type, and the transition it may go through. The state of a vegetation type is defined by age range, cover type (type of vegetation), canopy layers, percent canopy coverage, and size class. The transitions, which could be anything from human activity to fire to insect attack, are represented in arrows. The model uses the boxes and arrows to guide the user to making a prediction on how a particular landscape will function, given these inputs.

“VDDT does simulations across time,” he said. “If you don’t have models that simulate across time, what is the alternative? The bottom line will be: if you don’t have any other very practical and accurate techniques to predict the futures, you depend on models.”

In short, the GIS team collects the data, Bisrat’s team builds and runs models, and analysts make predictions.

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project

One current example in which both vegetation modeling and GIS are used is in the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project, a two-year Portland-based project that builds models of current and future vegetation landscapes in four states—Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington. It then uses these models to inform decision-making for land managers, planners, and analysts at regional, state and on-the-ground levels.

The project was funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and has employed 50 people, including graduate students and recent graduates in Portland.

Miles Hemstrom, who has been working with landscape assessments and modeling for about 15 years, leads the team.

The ILAP project builds models of current and future vegetation landscapes in four states, Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington

As a forest ecologist in the early ‘80s, Hemstrom saw what happened to forest communities with changes in the timber harvest and realized the downside to looking at the land from one perspective. He later asked himself what would happen if he looked at public land from multiple perspectives, using the economics, ecology and disturbances such as fire and logging as lenses.

“(The) project is personally a culmination of long time effort to pull together how to think about whole land,” he said.

When he received funding from the recovery act two years ago, it gave him the chance to push this vision ahead. One main concern for Hemstrom was to make the models and projections readable and usable for those who work and manage land.

“Most of what we’re doing is not new, “ Hemstrom said.

The landscape assessment, Hemstrom said, is merely building on already existing geographical models by updating information and making predictions for future vegetation and potential risks to the vegetation.

“What our team is trying together is a what to think about how those changes are happening across big areas of land, and what we might do to either get better results… have a more sustainable impact, produce green jobs,” Hemstrom said.

The analysts based at Portland State University use geographical information and analysis information to create the vegetation models. Those models have predictive value, but may not be entirely accurate, says Bisrat.

“The beauty of VDDT is if you build models and do a prediction, once it reaches say a forest manager, it can tell this is the input, this is the output,” he said “There are boxes so if you see it with a forest manager who doesn’t have a good modeling knowledge or background he can understand.”

Shlisky also sees the development tool as the perfect fit for the project.

“[The visualization of the models] really mimics the way that ecosystems, forests and rangelands operate ecologically,” she said. “They include attributes or parameters about ‘What’s the rate of vegetation growth? What’s the frequency of disturbance, whether it’s fire or insects or disease? What happens if you go in and harvest a few trees? What happens if climate change has a particular effect?’”

However, Hemstrom said for the purpose of this project VDDT works perfectly when covering large areas of land, and thus the data is easier to translate for users.

Data for practical applications

Using GIS to visually communicate this “story” behind a landscape to become accessible and relevant not just to decision-makers and land managers, but, eventually, to everyone.

The projected completion date for the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project project is early 2012. The use of GIS has been a huge game changer for how managers and the public view the natural land, manage impacts and understand the consequences of management actions.

“If we can help people think about what it looks like, and what their experience has been, and how that forest can change—it might blow down, it might burn up—we can build a set of stories in people’s minds and what they care about,” said Miles Hemstrom.

Shilsky is excited about having the models to use for forest planning. “I think it’s going to significantly bump up our capacity for making scientifically sound decisions.”

“I’m looking forward to having that capacity and those resources available to us, as well as I envision contributing back to the development of those models because, through time, we’re going to learn more about the way systems function.”

Models for the Real World Audio Story

Miles Hemstrom with the Pacific Northwest Research Station estimates the height of native conifers in a forest outside of Portland, Ore. Hemstrom uses digital tools to predict changes to forests in the Northwest and beyond.

Kate Burke is beginning her third year at the University of Oregon as a journalism major with a minor in Spanish and anthropology. She is moved by the fascinating imagery that nature has provided for us, and thus, will focus on documentary production and photojournalism. Journalism came into her life when she realized the need for a gateway to the exploration of all of her passions and curiosities such as traveling, wildlife, nature, and diverse human cultures. Through storytelling, she hopes to plant a seed in the minds of individuals that will inspire the development of care and concern for the conservation of wildlife and the natural world.

Branden FitzPatrick will be starting his junior year at the University of Oregon in September. He is currently working toward a degree in journalism and advertising. He has extensive writing experience, including the development of an expansive essay for last years Trash Edition of the NOMAD. He specializes in multimedia and design. Branden grew up in Elk Grove, California before moving to Salem, Oregon in 2003. As a child living in Northern California, he became an avid Sacramento Kings fan. Many of his childhood memories were formed watching basketball games at Arco Arena. In his spare time, Branden enjoys bike riding, running and visiting his family back home.

Lauren Jow is a designer and illustrator who appreciates the outlet journalism provides for smart design, which she defines as effective, useful and visually pleasing. She also values journalism for its combination of technology and creativity to convey practical information and its commitment to connecting people.

Lauren currently works on visual content for the International Educational Computing Conference (ISTE) and other national conferences. She has worked as a designer for the Oregon Daily Emerald and Flux Magazine and previously explored the nonprofit industry, serving as a field director and on the board of directors for MAPLE Microdevelopment, an organization dedicated to sustainable community building and education. She loves learning and will always consider herself a student.

Anthony Rimel graduates from the University of Oregon with a post-baccalareuate degree in journalism this summer and wants to pursue a career as a multimedia journalist who combines audio, video and stills to tell compelling stories.  In addition to his studies at UO, Rimel has a bachelor’s degree in business from OSU.  While at UO, Rimel has produced segments for the student run variety show DuckU, published text stories in the Oregon Daily Emerald, and taken photos for Ethos and Flux magazines.  Additionally, in the summer of 2010 Rimel co-produced a video that won a $1000 prize in a public service announcement competition run by an Oregon utility company.

Rimel has a life long interest in science and nature and hopes to produce high quality content that allows everyday people to understand complex scientific issues.  For more information about Rimel, visit anthonyrimel.wordpress.com or contact him at anthonyrimel@gmail.com.

Winter 2011:

Heather Ah San is a senior journalism major who will graduate in spring 2011. She has experience primarily in writing in reporting for campus publications, though she also has some multimedia experience with Final Cut Pro and Photoshop from some of my previous J classes. Heather is interning at My Eugene this term and hopes to try her hand at some multimedia projects there as well. If she weren’t journalism major (and if she liked chemistry better) she may have ended up studying biology or nutrition. She also really loves social science.

Lorie Anne Acio is a Robert D. Clark Honors College senior majoring in broadcast journalism at the University of Oregon. She was born in the Philippines but grew up in Honolulu, Hawaii. She loves to unearth untold stories and express herself artistically through documentary filmmaking. Lorie Anne plans on becoming a broadcast news reporter with a focus on international and global humanitarian reporting. She is committed to increasing diversity, and she hopes to use the various functions of mass media to raise awareness about important issues as well as highlight the lives of ordinary citizens with remarkable stories.

Andrew Creasey is a senior journalism student focusing on magazine writing. He is a feature writer for Ethos magazine and a contributor to Oregon Music News. He is infected with a travel bug that has no cure in sight. He hopes to cultivate the ability to fashion long-form, quasi-informative prose into a lucrative career. Follow him on Twitter for irregular updates on articles written and fascinating nonsense encountered.

Steven Foreman grew up in Flagstaff, Arizona spending much of his time mountain biking and skiing. He moved to Fairbanks, Alaska in 2005. He graduated with a Bachelor’s in English from the University of Alaska Fairbanks in 2009. He now studies journalism at the University of Oregon, and plans to graduate with a Master’s in June. He wants to make documentaries on foreign conflicts.

Rachelle Hacmac is a senior journalism major at the University of Oregon. She is a multimedia journalist passionate about storytelling. In addition to classes, she works as a staff photographer for the Oregon Daily Emerald and interns as a photographer/videographer for King Estate winery in Eugene. Rachelle also works freelance for Willamette Week and does photography and design for Wallin and Buerkle (jewelry) in Portland

Andrew Hard is a senior at the University of Oregon, currently majoring in magazine journalism and minoring in political science. He has many passions, including music composition, martial arts, and the outdoors, but ever since he began writing science fiction stories at the age of 13, he knew that the art of writing was his true calling.  Andrew has always been enthusiastic about capturing the essence of a subject and putting it to page, and he relishes the opportunity to research complex subjects and recount tangible, consolidating themes for readers.  Although Andrew has spent the last year writing about the arts for the Portland online magazine Oregon Music News, the process of crafting and polishing a story is more important than the individual topic.  After graduation, Andrew hopes to write political, arts, or human-interest features for one of the Northwest’s top magazines and continue his ongoing education to become the best writer he can.

Edwin Ouellette is a soon to be graduate of the University of Oregon, with a double bachelor’s degree in Magazine Journalism and Political Science. His journalism interests include long-form feature writing, investigatory journalism, profile pieces, humorous essays, graphic design, and political cartooning. When not writing, editing, designing or illustrating, he can be found playing badminton, reading political biographies, and boxing.

Ashley Pennington is a senior at the University of Oregon majoring in news/editorial and magazine journalism as well as philosophy. She will graduate in July and is hoping to attend graduate school in the fall. Ashley is originally from Tigard, Oregon.

Leilani Rapaport is a journalism student at the University of Oregon. She was raised in Honolulu, Hawaii and spent a year abroad in Madrid, Spain. Leilani has interned at Trade Publishing Company and KMTR NewsSource 16, and now works as a multimedia producer for the Oregon Daily Emerald. She hopes to pursue career interests in documentary production and media law.

How does city life affect a tree?  Researchers have documented the positive social, economic and health effects that a healthy urban canopy has on human communities. The flip side of those benefits is that city living is hard on trees — from encounters with power lines to increased smog levels. Learn more about the threats to urban forests in this interactive graphic.

Tree surveyors from the PNW Research stations often deal with urban obstacles. Here, forest service employees collect data near Portland’s Park Blocks.

Tucked away in a high-rise office building in the heart of downtown Portland, Ore., researcher and economist Geoffrey Donovan is making bold claims for the benefits of big trees in big cities. According to his studies, larger trees in urban neighborhoods may decrease crime and reduce the number of underweight newborns.

At first glance, Donovan, with his closely cropped blond hair, button-down shirt and British accent, does not fit the pony-tailed, bearded mold so often associated with environmental researchers. He’s an economist who thinks in terms of dollars and cents, choosing to view trees not for their rugged natural beauty, but for their tangible benefits to society. It’s a Freakonomics approach in a biological field where Donovan takes the trailblazing approach of authors Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner to uncover the economic benefits everyday objects.

Instead of tromping through neighborhoods and forests surveying tree health and trunk size, he hunches over a desk poring over aerial photographs and canopy-cover maps in relation to other statistics, such as property values, crime rates and birth outcomes, in search of correlations.

Donovan got his start in Sacramento investigating the benefits urban trees have on property values and utility bills. He found that trees lift property values by as much as $7,000 while defraying thirty percent of summer energy costs. This is not groundbreaking data, but it did give Donovan insight into the recognizable benefits of trees.

“I started out in the field quantifying the benefits that are more intuitively obvious to people,” Donovan says. “People understand that that the natural environment can make the house more appealing.”

Buried beneath this aesthetic value are raw figures that illustrate how valuable trees are to the community. A 2007 assessment from the Portland Parks and Recreation Department found that trees save private property owners $27 million annually, while costing $6.5 million to maintain.

Properly framed, these dollar savings cast trees in the role of the unsung community hero. Yet despite the conclusions of his studies, Donovan maintains a rigidly objective stance on his scientific analysis. “I’m not in the ‘should’ business,” Donovan says. “What I do is say: If you were to do this, this is what I think will happen. I’m not an advocate. I just use my research.”

Recently, Donovan has turned his research toward delving into the nebulous realm of correlations. His new results don’t bear dollar signs, and give trees seemingly mystical powers. The road to public acceptance for these conclusions has been more difficult, as well as more widely traveled.

“The birth outcomes received a bit more attention,” Donovan says. “I think for some it’s difficult to realize how trees could do this.”

Donovan is not the first researcher to investigate trees’ effect on health. A pioneering 1984 study concluded that patients recovering from gall bladder surgery in a room with a view of trees were discharged more quickly, and received less pain medication than patients in rooms with no windows. Other studies have observed that trees lower obesity. Donovan, however, was the first researcher to look at the effect of trees on infant health.

In his study, Donovan examined various tree canopy sizes at the site of over 5,500 births in the Portland area. Using statistical equations to eliminate cofactors that could influence birth outcomes, such as race, age, insurance type and receipt of prenatal care, the study found that a ten percent increase in tree cover within 50 meters of the house reduced the number of lower-weight births by 1.42 out of 1,000. While this number is by no means mind boggling, it does point to an important health benefit of trees and warrants further research.

Yet for all of Donovan’s headline-grabbing conclusions, he is a data-crunching intermediary between the public and those collecting data in the field. He’s not responsible for the initial research that looks at the size, health, and distribution of urban trees. That task falls on the shoulders of scientists like John Mills. Mills is a forest researcher with the Pacific Northwest Research Station who assesses and inventories urban forests.